Essays on the Political Economy of Commercial Policy During the Crisis Era PDF
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This dissertation is a collection of three essays in the area of the political economy of commercial policy during the crisis era. Chapter 1 examines the commercial policy of Russia during 2008-13, a time of global financial crisis that coincided with the announcement of the Russian modernization programme (from 2008 onwards). The falling price of oil in 2008-9 led to a tightened government budget constraint. It induced Russia to make wider use of more traditional instruments of trade policy as well as an import substitution strategy, the creation of the Customs Union, and a pause in the WTO accession process. Chapter 2 assesses the Government's trade policy making in times of crisis versus times of economic stability using the Russian import tariff data at the industry level in Grossman-Helpman |protection for sale| analytical framework. I analyse the |Putin-Medvedev tandem| period starting in 2000. The welfare-mindedness of the Government in the crisis appears to be smaller relative to that of the preceding period of economic stability. In other words, in a crisis the Government places relatively more weight on contributions from lobbyists. This result is driven by firms lobbying to obtain state support in times of financial difficulty and by the Government's return to the |interest-driven| industrial policy. Chapter 3 examines the role of the political regime during the global systemic crisis (2009-13) using the gravity approach. We estimate the effect of being a democratic pair of countries on (goods) export flows during the period 2009 to 2013, controlling for international institutions as well as for bilateral protectionism for 158 countries. We find that democratic dyads tended to trade less (in goods) between 2009 and 2013 than other political regime groups. This finding is new and differs from those of previous studies. We suggest several explanations for this phenomenon.
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